Tionesta, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

243
FXUS66 KMFR 060923
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
223 AM PDT Tue May 6 2025

.DISCUSSION...

*Low impact weather expected through the week, with
temperatures trending warmer again today.

*Weak/dry front brings slightly cooler temps on Wednesday and
Thursday. 15-20% chance of light rain along coast north of Cape
Blanco and Cascades north of Diamond Lake.

*Warmer temperatures return Friday and Saturday.

*Cooling trend with possible active weather late weekend into early
next week.

An omega block is present across the CONUS with the western anchor
centered over Arizona and the eastern anchor centered over the Ohio
River Valley. Upper level ridging over the eastern Pacific will
nudge into the region later today, and a thermal trough is present
along the coast. This pattern is resulting in deep layer north to
northeast flow with clear skies across the forecast area this
morning. Low temperatures this morning will be a few degrees warmer
than Monday morning`s lows thanks to this offshore flow. In fact,
the Chetco Effect is in full swing this morning with current
temperatures in Brookings reading in the low 70s. Gusty winds
persist across the higher terrain again this morning where gusts of
25 to 30 mph are being recorded.

The upper level pattern becomes more progressive today as energy
slides southward into the western anchor low this morning. This will
help to break down the omega block across the CONUS from mid-week
onward. Temperatures trend warmer across the area again on today as
the upper level ridge axis moves overhead and the thermal trough
pushes inland. While temperatures trend warmer for inland locations,
the Chetco Effect will ease, temperatures will cool at Brookings and
winds will ease across the higher terrain.

By Wednesday, a deep trough in the Gulf of Alaska sags southward,
and sends a weak front through the Pacific Northwest late Wednesday
into Thursday. The main effects of the front will be slightly cooler
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, an uptick in afternoon breezes
and an increase in clouds. Some light precipitation is possible with
this front along the coast and in the Cascades north of Diamond
Lake, but guidance is in pretty good agreement in it being very
little precipitation (trace-0.01"), if any at all. We`ll remain
under southwest flow Friday into Saturday as flat ridging develops
to the southeast. This will bring the return of sunny skies and
warmer temperatures, with the warmest temperatures of the forecast
period expected on Friday and Saturday.

A cooling trend looks likely Sunday into early next week. The trough
in the Gulf of Alaska sags southward Saturday and starts to push
inland into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. It`s a ways out in time
to be certain of any details, but latest guidance has come into
agreement on a trough with cooler temperatures and rainfall
impacting the Pacific Northwest during the early part of next week.
Latest cluster analysis shows some differences in timing and how
long the trough lingers, but it does bring increasing confidence in
a pattern change early next week. Snow levels could get as low as
5000 ft under this pattern, which would result in some light snow at
the higher passes. Given the time of year, however, winter impacts
would be unlikely. Stay tuned as the time drawers nearer and details
become more clear.

&&

.AVIATION...06/06Z TAFs...Winds have eased this evening and will
remain at normal through the night. Stable atmospheric conditions
will support normal diurnal winds under VFR levels across northern
California and southern Oregon through the TAF period. -TAD

&&

MARINE...Updated 130 AM Tuesday, May 6, 2025...A thermal trough will
maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through this
morning, with the highest seas and strongest winds expected from
Gold Beach southward. Conditions gradually improve today as seas
become less steep. However, seas will remain steep for the waters
south of Cape Blanco and in the outer waters south of Coos Bay
through this afternoon.

Conditions improve for all areas by early Wednesday morning, although
breezy north winds will persist through the week. Seas become less
steep this evening into Wednesday, becoming northwest swell
dominated (5 to 7 ft @ 11-13 seconds) for the latter half of the
week. Overall conditions should remain below advisory criteria from
Wednesday onward, though winds could approach advisory levels at
times Thursday and Friday south of Cape Blanco.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this
     evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for
     PZZ356-376.

&&

$$